Justin White, Managing Director of Centennial Advisers attended the AAOC State of the Market, and below are his highlights form he Panel Discussion.
- Nashville, Salt Lake and Austin are hot markets. People and businesses from Southern California are moving there.
- In Commercial Real Estate, you never see the tenant, but Apartment Management is a people business. Your tenants are living with your managers and you see them every month.
- Don’t foresee a lot of job growth in Orange County, the Inland Empire on the other hand has the best ratio of job growth/new construction.
- One panelist worried there was an 60% chance Prop 10 would pass in two weeks. Another said if Prop 10 looses, the opposition will remove SFR’s from the proposal and it will be back for the 2020 Presidential Election.
- Orange County needs to absorb the record apartment construction in 2016/2017.
- Luxury is a different animal in Orange County, we are seeing rent growth in 5-6% range year over year on our B class assets throughout Orange County.
- An inverted yield curve and 2 quarters of negative job growth predict recession, we are getting dangerously close
- All 5 Panelists said they were buyers, but maybe not in Southern California,“Hard to buy in So Cal.”
- Opportunity Zones are a challenge, but their may be a premium if your site is shovel ready.